As Australia considers its role in the context of great power competition with our forthcoming National Defence Strategy, we face a tension. This tension is between our desire to avoid the extremely costly effects of escalation into major conflict, while avoiding the erosion of international norms from competitors who use grey zone tactics to advance their strategic position. This conference examines this tension. Today’s challenges of Iranian support to Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and others, are perhaps not the distraction some believe them to be. Perhaps these proxies are the way in which international norms might be subverted and the way in which costs might be imposed upon Western interests.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, with ongoing subversive efforts against NATO. The civil war in Myanmar also continues, drawing support from the PRC to sustain its national interests and BRI investments. Islamic State and its affiliates remain, and are expanding in West Africa and Afghanistan, constituting a latent terrorist threat as recent attacks by IS-KP in Russia have demonstrated. Most importantly, these conflicts are demonstrating an adaptive ecosystem as emerging technologies are tested, refined, and scaled.
The future of warfare is now, unevenly distributed in localised pockets of conflict that seldom register in daily mainstream media.