This week, we organised our second online panel event titled, “Undercurrents of Conflict: Emerging Threats in the Indo-Pacific”. Our distinguished panel included Professor David Kilcullen and Dr Richard Dunley from UNSW Canberra, Veerle Nouwens the Executive Director of IISS–Asia, and Julia Balm from the Freeman Air and Space Institute (FASI) at King’s College London. Setting the scene, Security & Defence PLuS lead at UNSW and chair of the discussion, Professor Craig Stockings declared that “the ‘holiday from history’ is over.” He asserted that the post-Cold War era of complacency has ended and the Indo-Pacific region now faces a return to traditional great power competition and the possibility of conflict.
The panellists explored the significance of maritime, land, air, and space power, as well as the influence of political and economic factors on security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region. Dr Richard Dunley highlighted the Indo-Pacific as a “fundamentally maritime theatre”, with critical flashpoints in the South and East China Seas. Prof David Kilcullen introduced the concept of littoral warfare, describing it as the domain where land, sea, and air operations converge. He highlighted how players without major naval forces can effectively disrupt or control maritime operations, citing recent examples by Ukraine and the Houthis. Julia Balm discussed the rapid proliferation of space technology, underscoring China’s ambitions in space as a critical factor shaping the region’s security landscape. Finally, Veerle Nouwens emphasised the crucial role of geopolitics in shaping regional security, highlighting the interplay between military strategy and economic realities.
The discussion also explored potential triggers for conflict in the Indo-Pacific, with the panellists focusing on the lessons China may be learning from the war in Ukraine. They highlighted the rising tensions surrounding Taiwan, fueled by China’s increasingly assertive grey-zone tactics. Veerle Nouwens underscored the critical need for effective crisis management mechanisms in the region, while Julia Balm emphasised the importance of ensuring resilient communication systems.
The conversation then shifted to the major vulnerabilities and risks facing the AUKUS partners if conflict were to erupt in the region. Prof Richard Dunley highlighted shipping as the most significant vulnerability, emphasising that each AUKUS nation heavily relies on imported resources from external partners, which are crucial for sustaining a wartime economy. The panellists also expressed significant concerns about maintaining supply lines and protecting critical infrastructure, such as GPS and undersea cables, which are essential to securing these vital resources. Prof David Kilcullen concluded with a strong call for countries to prioritise preventing a war between the United States and China as their principal national goal.
We thank the panellists for their insights and the audience for their interest and engagement in the discussion. If you missed the discussion, or would like to revisit it, you can watch the recording below.